What has economic research taught us about the aftermath of conflict? Which policies can effectively rebuild communities and create a lasting peace?
The Reducing Conflict and Improving Performance in the Economy (ReCIPE) programme was established in April 2024 as a CEPR research initiative funded by the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO). The initiative aims to provide a better understanding of the links between conflict, economic growth, and public policy. One of its key themes is on what happens post-conflict: peace-making, peacebuilding, and reconstruction, a topic explored in-depth by Salma Mousa (UCLA) and Lisa Hultman (Uppsala University) in this episode of VoxDevTalks.
The ReCIPE programme is designed to create a cohesive research agenda, where different projects contribute to a larger, interconnected body of knowledge on conflict.
"What we're doing differently is first focusing on conflict specifically... By defining the research agenda, we can, for example, encourage all the different researchers to use the same set of outcomes or to speak to different pieces of the same problem in a way that creates a much more cohesive end product." Salma Mousa
This focus allows the initiative to generate more substantial, policy-relevant findings that directly address the dynamics of conflict and peacebuilding. You can read more on the ReCIPE website.
The effectiveness of peacekeeping operations
Research suggests that despite media narratives of failure, peacekeeping is largely effective at enhancing security and reducing violence.
"A lot of studies using different types of data, using different methods and looking at different types of outcome for security, find that UN peacekeeping has been impressively effective in bringing about peace, enhancing security by reducing violence between armed actors, by protecting civilians in these conflict contexts in which they operate." Lisa Hultman
However, success in peacekeeping depends on several factors:
- Political will from the UN Security Council
- Sufficient funding and resources
- Properly tailored mandates suited to specific conflicts
- Deployment of the right mix of forces (military, police, etc.)
The double-edged sword of humanitarian aid during conflict
While humanitarian aid is crucial in post-conflict regions, it can also exacerbate competition for resources and lead to unintended violence. In fragile states with weak governance, aid distribution can become a tool for power struggles among armed groups.
"Whoever grabs these resources gets the power of distributing them, and so it can generate this violent competition for controlling resources." Lisa Hultman
Rather than stopping aid altogether, research under ReCIPE aims to optimise aid distribution to mitigate such risks. For instance:
- Ensuring aid is well-protected (e.g. by peacekeepers)
- Delivering aid through accountable institutions
- Designing aid flows to minimise looting risks
Rebuilding trust and social cohesion after conflict
Rebuilding trust among communities after conflict is an enormous challenge, as conflicts tend to entrench segregation, distrust, and economic stagnation.
"Conflict becomes part of a vicious cycle of underdevelopment... The more that groups are not talking to each other, violence becomes more likely, and then you're back into this trap." Salma Mousa
A critical question is who has the legitimacy to lead reconciliation efforts? The discussion highlights examples from Rwanda, South Africa, and Bosnia and Herzegovina, where successful post-conflict institutions were established through:
- Broad-based representation of minority and vulnerable groups
- Transitional justice and accountability measures
- Stability-focused governance
- Adherence to international agreements
The role of transitional justice and reconciliation commissions
A key aspect of post-conflict recovery is reintegrating survivors and perpetrators of violence. Without individual accountability mechanisms, many societies struggle with deep-seated distrust.
"One of the best studies that we have of this work, which was conducted in Sierra Leone, found that victims who participated in these sessions did actually increase their social capital. It increased their feelings of social cohesion, but it did come at a cost to their mental health." Salma Mousa
While truth and reconciliation commissions can improve social cohesion, they also risk re-traumatising victims. Thus, researchers are exploring ways to balance reconciliation with psychological well-being.
The future of conflict research and policy implementation
ReCIPE aims to bridge the gap between grassroots peacebuilding efforts and macro-level peacekeeping policies. One key challenge is measuring the real impact of peacebuilding initiatives on reducing violence.
"For too long, we've had great work being done on inter-group contact and dialogue, prejudice-reduction, perspective-taking and empathy. And now the policymakers are coming back to us saying, but did that reduce conflict? Did that reduce violence? And it’s really hard to do." Salma Mousa
New data sources—such as satellite images, large language models, and spatial models—are providing unprecedented insights into conflict dynamics. ReCIPE researchers aim to leverage these innovations to design more effective, data-driven policies.
The ultimate goal: Reducing conflict and enhancing development
Ultimately, the ReCIPE programme seeks to create real-world impact by ensuring that policy decisions are informed by robust research.
By identifying what works and what doesn’t, ReCIPE can help policymakers reallocate resources effectively and design interventions that genuinely contribute to peace, security, and economic development.